The Prime Time Sports Management Conference was held at the Westin Harbour Castle in Toronto Monday, presenting an opportunity to hear NHL executives discuss their business. Increasingly, when that happens, there are more questions related to analytics and how they apply in todays National Hockey League. Maple Leafs Assistant General Manager Kyle Dubas, who is somewhat a face of the analytics movement, a young up-and-comer who incorporates the use of analytics in making personnel decisions, got things going on the right foot by expressing an understanding of the central point of Moneyball; that is, that it is about finding inefficiencies in the marketplace, not evaluating all players by on-base percentage. This is one area where analytics in hockey can get derailed. If everything is about Corsi, for example, that wont be the aspect that is undervalued. Were not at that stage yet, but understanding that its about market inefficiencies means that should the day come when puck possession stats are overvalued metrics, teams can find a new edge with whatever is the inefficiency of that particular time. In trying to bring a more analytical approach in Toronto, Dubas emphasized that its not about replacing anyone or making people obsolete, rather Its to add layers to our evaluation process and add greater context. Thats the smart way for an NHL front office to use numbers. Dubas, when asked about the next frontier of analytics thought about digging deeper into current metrics to see if there are more secrets to be unlocked, as well as the inevitable tracking of players movement on the field of play. Many teams added front office personnel this summer to address the use of analytics. The Maple Leafs, most notably, hired Dubas, then added three more members of an analytics team. The Calgary Flames already had Chris Snow working in that role, but have quietly added support staff. Flames GM Brad Treliving said that the Flames have added people with a math background, and without a public profile, which does make it harder for outsiders to evaluate the quality of talent they have added to the front office. Treliving acknowledged that there is an advantage to hiring someone (eg. bloggers) whose work has been done in public and that is that they have a body of work to measure and judge. Tim Barnes (Capitals), Cam Charron (Maple Leafs), Tyler Dellow (Oilers), Brian Macdonald (Panthers), Sunny Mehta (Devils) and Eric Tulsky (secret team) are among those that NHL teams added in the offseason after they had been providing analysis in the blogosphere and analysis that can withstand rigorous public scrutiny tends to from pretty sharp minds. Its evident that analytics are growing in importance around the NHL, but lets not mistake that for universal acceptance either. TSNs Gord Miller moderated a panel with Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin and Calgary Flames President of Hockey Operations Brian Burke and, while analytics werent roundly dismissed as they might have been a few years ago, its not like the Flames or Canadiens go straight to the analytics when making decisions. When asked if analytics play a role in player evaluation and acquisition, Bergevin responded, Its all about balance, while asserting that he prefers to see a player in person. As for Burke, Its more important for amateur than pro, he said. Even though (analytics) should be used, its down the list. Earlier in the day, while moderating the analytics panel, Burke said that the Flames Have the leagues best analytics guy (Snow), and they clearly have a role, yet also said that analytics are grossly overrated. Oh, to be the leagues best in a grossly overrated field. Believe it or not, though, there is real value to using analytics in addition to the eye test and while Burke questions the predictive value of hockey analytics, that is where real value is found. For example, when the discussion veered towards Flames defenceman Mark Giordano - an analytics All-Star - Burke said that you can tell how good he is by watching. Sure, thats true enough, now. In January, 2013, however, Dellow had an article on his website talking about Giordano as being better than highly sought-after trade commodity Jay Bouwmeester and that was far from a universally-accepted opinion at the time. Sometimes, using analytics can steer decisions and evaluations in the right direction before its obvious and thats where an edge is gained. Having an opinion or evaluation that is obvious provides no competitive advantage. But, if Burke is genuine about using analytics as part of a checklist when evaluating players, saying that if numbers dont match their opinions, they double back on their viewings to see if there is something they are missing, then that is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, Burke also referred to players Doppler scores (weather analytics?) in this example, so there wasnt a concrete example of how they might handle a difference in analytics and eye-test evaluation. While Bergevin said that he has full confidence in his knowledge of his own team, because hes there every day, he sees more value in analytics to complement scouts opinions of players on other teams. Both Burke and Bergevin noted that smart decisions require complete information and outsiders often dont have that full information available to them. Bergevin commented that there was a player who had great analytics last season, but no team signed him this year, suggesting that all 30 teams had some reason for bypassing the player. (Incidentally, Andrei Loktionov did have a 55.0% Corsi last season with Carolina, yet no NHL job this season.) DRAFT Miller asked an interesting question about what either would do as a GM if their eye test didnt agree with their Director of Scoutings opinion of a player, and whether they would use, for example, the seventh pick in the draft on a player that they didnt like. Both Burke and Bergevin admitted they would have a hard time agreeing to use a high pick like that. Burke said it would be easier to go with scouts opinion on the 17th pick, but not so easily with a top pick. Bergevin talked about how he liked Ryan Murray and Morgan Rielly - the former NHL blueliner has an affinity for defencemen - but didnt get to see a lot of Rielly and Alex Galchenyuk during their draft years, since both were injured for most of the season, so Bergevin was more inclined to lean on head scout Trevor Timmins. Its an interesting question because the public sees the end result on draft day, which players a team picks, but doesnt necessarily know the process of who is calling the shots and on what basis those potentially franchise-altering decisions are made. When discussing draft decisions, it does sound as though Burke could appreciate analytics as a tool for self-evaluation. He said they start every years scouting meetings discussing mistakes that they have made. The specific example he cited was Chicago Blackhawks forward Andrew Shaw, who wasnt drafted until the fifth round of his final draft-eligible season, yet has played an important role for the Blackhawks over the past couple seasons. Burke said what stood out in their evaluation was that Shaw was too small, with the problem being that, He doesnt realize hes too small. DEVELOPMENT Miller also asked about player development, and whether teams should send teens back to junior for further development. Im convinced some teams keep kids as a marketing tool, Burke said. I told Sean Monahan he was going back to junior, but he forced us to keep him. Bergevin added, The players make the decision, but the road to Montreal goes through Hamilton. Bergevin comes to this decision with perspective, having played in the NHL as a 19-year-old himself. I played in the NHL at 19, and what happens is that, because you want to stay in the league, you change your game, and maybe not for the best in terms of overall development. Ultimately, both Burke and Bergevin recognized the value of getting contributions from players on entry-level contracts. Burke said, You have to have players on entry level deals, so that you can afford to pay a salary like $9-million to Subban. Burke continued, It costs teams a lot of money to keep an 18-year-old. Based on a study they did when he was in the Leafs front office, they calculated that keeping an 18-year-old would cost $8-10-million more over the course of a players career, due to earlier arbitration and free agency. These are such high-stakes decisions in a multi-million dollar business, it would only make sense to use as much information as possible when making those decisions. QUOTABLE Burke: If you file for arbitration, were going to arbitration. I told Brendan Morrison, You wont like it, but you started this, so you cant complain about getting kicked in the groin. The hardest position to find? Bergevin: Goaltenders. Even if you find one, its so hard evaluating them. I sleep well at night knowing that we have a good one. Public pressure in decision making? Burke: I dont pay attention to anything anyone says in media. If someone in media makes a suggestion and you havent thought of it, then you should resign. Scott Cullen can be reached at scott.cullen@bellmedia.ca Air Force 1 Outlet .C. Lions 35-14, was named the CFLs offensive player of the week Tuesday. Sheets recorded his ninth 100-yard rushing performance of the season to tie the Riders club record. Air Force 1 Sale . Its Wu-Tang and Outkast in the final. Now, we all know youve played the role of Andre 3000 in the past, does that mean Outkast is getting your vote?AJ: You know it, you know it. https://www.cheapairforce1outlet.com/ .com) - Patrick Reed poured in a 19-foot birdie putt on the first playoff hole Monday to defeat Jimmy Walker and win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Air Force 1 Discount . -- Keith Aulie has joined the Tampa Bay Lightning. Air Force 1 Wholesale . A knee to the thigh might have stung him the most, but his sixth straight double-double made up for the brief burst of pain.BENTON HARBOR, Mich. -- Joe Durant knows his future is on the Champions Tour. That doesnt stop him from wanting to play on the PGA Tour. "I guess theres that part of your ego that still thinks you can play on the regular tour and you still want to prove you can do that," Durant said after birdieing his final hole Thursday for a 6-under 65 and a one-stroke lead after the first round of the Senior PGA Championship. Making his third Champions Tour start after turning 50 on April 7, the four-time PGA Tour winner had seven birdies and a bogey at Harbor Shores. Dan Forsman, fighting an arthritic left hip, opened with a 66, and Brad Faxon had a 67. Mark Brooks and P.H. Horgan III shot 68, and two-time Senior PGA winner Jay Haas and Colin Montgomerie were in the group at 69. Kenny Perry, the winner last week in the Regions Tradition in Alabama, topped the group at 70 with Bernhard Langer, Tom Lehman, John Cook and Tom Watson. Durant, coming off a ninth-place tie Sunday at Shoal Creek in the first major of the year, missed only one fairway and birdied all the par 5s. He also birdied the par-4 seventh hole that plays up a sand dune and usually into the wind off Lake Michigan. "I just had a nice rhythm," said Durant who has played on the PGA Tour, Web.com Tour and the Champions Tour this season and plans to play the PGA Tour and Champions the rest of the year. "I didnt try to do anything fancy. I just went from point A to point B and hit a lot of good shots. It worked out to be a nice round." Durant has struggled with his PGA Tour status position to get into events. "I know my future is more out here than out there, but I would just like to play out there a little bit," he said. "Itt doesnt get any easier out there, thats for sure.dddddddddddd" Forsman, a three-time winner on the Champions Tour after winning five times on the PGA Tour, had four birdies and a bogey -- on the seventh -- in his final nine holes. "Its elusive," Forsman said of good play this year. "Its a challenging game by any measure. Certainly the older you get, the aches and pains come along." Faxon made two 35-foot birdie putts early in his round. He has only one top-40 finish in eight tournaments this year and missed the cuts in his two previous Senior PGA appearances. "There was really nothing to predict this round," Faxon said. "But Im excited about playing. My wife (Dory) came in yesterday and we were talking about just playing golf and not worrying too much about stuff. And it happened." Perry is trying to win his fourth consecutive Champions Tour major. He won the Senior Players Championship and U.S. Senior Open in consecutive tour starts last year, then skipped the Senior British Open. He said he is making adjustments to the greens at Harbor Shores. "The last two weeks the greens have been pretty fast, and this week the greens are not nearly has fast on the roll out, so youve got to hit them a little bit," he said. "Any time you can shoot under par in a major youve done a good job. I was very pleased with my round even though I bogeyed the last hole with an 8-iron in my hand." Lee Rinker, who played the PGA Tour fulltime from 1984 to 1999, was the top club pro with a 69. Hes the director of golf at Emerald Dunes Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. Roger Chapman, the 2012 winner at Harbor Shores, opened with a 71. Japans Kohki Idoki, the winner last year at Bellerive in St. Louis, had a 76. ' ' '
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